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General Information
Prof. Adrian Olaru
University Politehnica of Bucharest, Romania
I'm happy to take on the position of editor in chief of IJMO. It's a journal that shows promise of becoming a recognized journal in the area of modelling and optimization. I'll work together with the editors to help it progress.
IJMO 2014Vol.4(4): 278-286 ISSN: 2010-3697
DOI: 10.7763/IJMO.2014.V4.386

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for a Model of an Electric Submersible Pump Lifted Oil Field

Roshan Sharma and Bjørn Glemmestad

Abstract—Dynamic and mechanistic models of an Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP) lifted oil field are frequently used for understanding the process dynamics and the interactions occurring between the oil wells under varying operating conditions. They are also used to calculate the total fluid produced from the oil field. In this article, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of such a model is studied. If the model is used for control and optimization of an oil field, it is important to see if the output calculated using the mathematical model lies within a confidence interval under the presence of uncertainties. It is also important to understand which parameters have strong/weak influence on the model output. The uncertainty analysis is performed by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Morris method of elementary effect is used for input factor screening. To quantify the effect of the input factors on the model output, a variance based method of sensitivity analysis is used.

Index Terms—Model uncertainty, ESP lifted oil field, morris method, variance based sensitivity analysis

The authors are with the Department of Electrical Engineering, Information Technology and Cybernetics, Telemark University College, Porsgrunn, Norway (e-mail: roshan.sharma@hit.no, bjorn.glemmestad@hit.no).


Cite: Roshan Sharma and Bjørn Glemmestad, "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for a Model of an Electric Submersible Pump Lifted Oil Field," International Journal of Modeling and Optimization vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 278-286, 2014.

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