Abstract—In the past five years, similar with the south east region’s economic growth’s, Indonesia’s average is 5,1%. This growth leads an increase in energy consumptions, especially electricity. Indonesian government aware of this situation and create policies to address it. This article objective is to build a dynamic model of Indonesia’s electricity demand. System dynamics proofed to show fruitful result for similar objective in other area. Therefor this article exercise system dynamics to build the model. Validation is essential to develop model credibility. For that reason, four techniques in system dynamics validations are applied. There were operational graphics, face validity, extreme condition test and historical data validation. The model shows that up to 2020, Indonesia will still be facing energy deficit. A surplus shown in 2021 and forward. Hence, Indonesian government’s policies in energy will be a success.
Index Terms—Electricity supply, system dynamics, modeling, policy analysis.
The authors are with Universitas Islam Indonesia, Indonesia (e-mail: jokosulistio@uii.ac.id).
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Cite: Joko Sulistio and Arifin Rosyadi, "Indonesia’s Electricity Dynamic Modelling toward Its National Policies," International Journal of Modeling and Optimization vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 311-314, 2018.
