Abstract—Deal or No Deal is a popular television show in many countries around the world over the past years. Along with being interesting show, it is also a suspenseful show. There are many unanswered questions associated with the show for years that yet have not been answered. Such as, how bank decided how much money to offer to contestants? The paper describes Kelly strategy and how the Kelly formula is derived. The comparison is done between Little Monkey strategy who randomly accept or reject the bank’s offer and the monkey who uses Kelly formula when making the decision on given bank’s offer. The hypothesis is that the average wining amount can be maximized in the long run and beat the Little Monkey strategy. Actual retrieved data set was enough evidence to support the predicted hypothesis. It conclude that Kelly strategy is effective when maximizing the expected winning in long run.
Index Terms—System modeling and simulation, kelly strategy, deal or no deal, numerical optimization.
K. Patel is with the Department of Computer Science, Valdosta State University, Valdosta, GA 31698 USA (e-mail: kvpatel@valdosta.edu).
A. L. Wang is with the Department of Economics and the Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA (e-mail: alexandrawang@college.harvard.edu).
J. Wang is with the Department of Mathematics, Valdosta State University, Valdosta, GA 31698 USA (e-mail: jwang@valdosta.edu).
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Cite: Krunal Patel, Alexandra L. Wang, and Jin Wang, "Simulation Optimization: Deal or No Deal Using Kelly Strategy," International Journal of Modeling and Optimization vol. 6, no. 5, pp. 306-309, 2016.
