Abstract—Dynamic and mechanistic models of an Electrical
Submersible Pump (ESP) lifted oil field are frequently used for
understanding the process dynamics and the interactions
occurring between the oil wells under varying operating
conditions. They are also used to calculate the total fluid
produced from the oil field. In this article, uncertainty and
sensitivity analysis of such a model is studied. If the model is
used for control and optimization of an oil field, it is important
to see if the output calculated using the mathematical model lies
within a confidence interval under the presence of uncertainties.
It is also important to understand which parameters have
strong/weak influence on the model output. The uncertainty
analysis is performed by using the Monte Carlo simulation
method. Morris method of elementary effect is used for input
factor screening. To quantify the effect of the input factors on
the model output, a variance based method of sensitivity
analysis is used.
Index Terms—Model uncertainty, ESP lifted oil field, morris
method, variance based sensitivity analysis
The authors are with the Department of Electrical Engineering,
Information Technology and Cybernetics, Telemark University College,
Porsgrunn, Norway (e-mail: roshan.sharma@hit.no,
bjorn.glemmestad@hit.no).
[PDF]
Cite: Roshan Sharma and Bjørn Glemmestad, "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for a Model of an
Electric Submersible Pump Lifted Oil Field," International Journal of Modeling and Optimization vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 278-286, 2014.
